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GB 513 Unit 5 Assignment NEW

GB 513 Unit 5 Assignment NEW
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GB 513 Unit 5 Assignment NEW

Question 1
Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Compute MAD and MSE.
Period Value Forecast Error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Question 2
202— — 191 202
173 192
169 181
171 174 175 172 182 174 196 179 204 189 219 198 227 211
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and nondurable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the United States over a 13-year period ($ billion).
1. Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearmovingaverage.
2. Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearweighted moving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.
3. Compute the errors of the forecasts in parts (a) and (b) and then the MAD. Which forecast is better?
1. 1  2,512.7
2. 2  2,739.2
3. 3  2,874.9
4. 4  2,934.1
5. 5  2,865.7
6. 6  2,978.5
7. 7  3,092.4
8. 8  3,356.8
9. 9  3,607.6
10. 10  3,749.3
11. 11  3,952.0
12. 12  3,949.0
13. 13  4,137.0
Question 3
The “Economic Report to the President of the United States” included data on the amounts of manufacturers’ new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21-year period. Use Excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for these data. Use a linear model and then try a quadratic model. How well does either model fit the data?
Year Total Number of New Orders
1. 1  55,022
2. 2  55,921
3. 3  64,1 82
4. 4  76,003
5. 5  87,327
6. 6  85,139
7. 8 115,109
9. 9  131,629
10. 10  147,604
11. 11  156,359
12. 12  168,025
13. 13  162,140
14. 14  175,451
15. 15  192,879
16. 16  195,706
17. 17  195,204
18. 18  209,389
19. 19  227,025
20. 20  240,758
21. 21  243,643

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